Test set

93,592 held-out trips, last week of January

MAE

3.23 min (lookup table 3.24, distance-only 4.14)

Rare routes

3.25 vs 4.69 for the lookup table

Files

delivery/nn.py train_nn.py mlp.npz

Test results

Model	MAE (min)	RMSE	Bias
NN (MLP)	3.23	5.44	-1.87
hist-avg (pair,hour)	3.24	5.42	-1.61
distance-linear	4.14	6.40	-1.62
global mean	5.45	8.88	-1.31

Figures